Value Packs / Telecom / Revenue & Usage Analytics / Wisdom
Which plan tiers are earning less per subscriber than we expect this week, and how many subscribers are on each?
NPostpaid Gold is earning well below its usual
IN A NUTSHELL
Three tiers are earning less per subscriber than is usual for them. Postpaid Gold is furthest — $11.42 ARPU against a usual $13.06, $1.64 down, across 1.24M subscribers. Postpaid Silver is 41 cents down across 2.06M and Postpaid Platinum 17 cents down across 620K. 5G Ultra and Prepaid Flex are both earning more than usual. Gold’s gap is $2.03M of revenue in one week, more than the other two tiers’ gaps together.
ARPU against what is usual, by plan tier, this week
Each tier is read against its own usual level — 5G Ultra normally earns $17.40 a subscriber and Prepaid Flex $4.05, so the dollars are not comparable across tiers.
Silver and Platinum carry 2.68M subscribers between them and are down $0.95M in total. Gold carries fewer subscribers than those two and is down more than twice as much money.
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How has ARPU on Postpaid Gold moved week by week against what we expect?
NBelow expectation for four weeks and lower each week
IN A NUTSHELL
Postpaid Gold stayed inside its expected range through week 11, moving between $12.78 and $13.34, then fell below the range at week 12 and has been lower every week since — $12.55, $12.24, $11.83 and $11.42. The fall from week 11 to now is $1.77 a subscriber. The largest move in the eleven normal weeks was 56 cents, so this is more than three times anything the series did while it was inside its range.
ARPU against the range expected of it · Postpaid Gold
The range is rebuilt each week — the gap between the line and the bottom of it is how far below expectation the tier is earning.
Weeks 1 to 11 sit either side of expectation by no more than 36 cents. From week 12 the shortfall runs 50, 78, 125 and 164 cents a subscriber, widening in each of the four.
Wisdom noticed
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Are subscribers using less, or paying less for the same use?
NThey are using slightly more and paying for far fewer extras
IN A NUTSHELL
They are not using less. Data per subscriber is 9.6 GB against a usual 9.4 — up 2.1%. The plan fee is earning almost exactly what it always does, at $11.14 against $11.18. The whole of the shortfall is in two components: roaming has gone from $1.32 a subscriber to $0.21, and overage from $0.56 to $0.07. Between them those two are $1.60 of the $1.64 the tier is down.
What Postpaid Gold subscribers use and what they pay for · this week against usual
| Usage and revenue component | A usual week | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data per subscriber | 9.4 GB | 9.6 GB | +2.1% |
| Plan fee | $11.18 | $11.14 | −0.4% |
| Roaming | $1.32 | $0.21 | −84.1% |
| Overage | $0.56 | $0.07 | −87.5% |
The three revenue components add up to ARPU — $13.06 in a usual week and $11.42 in this one.
Roaming and overage are 14% of what a Gold subscriber normally pays and 98% of what has gone missing. The plan fee, which is the other 86%, has not moved.
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Put the weekly revenue report together.
NThe report splits ARPU into the plan fee, roaming and overage for every tier and state, alongside the data each subscriber used. One row per tier and state, so the components that moved can be seen next to the ones that did not.
arpu_by_tier_week_15.xlsx
One row per tier and state, with revenue split by component and the data used behind it. Five tiers, and fifteen weeks of history.
61 KB · 240 rows · 5 tiers · 15 weeks
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