Acquisition & Channel Monitor · Brief 01
A channel where the leads still arrive and the orders stopped
Dealer channel · secondary markets · September 2025 · lead → order → activation
The one line you configure
Which acquisition channels are converting below their own seasonal band this month — and where one is, did the leads dry up or did they stop converting?
In a nutshell
They stopped converting, which is the more expensive of the two. Lead volume through the dealer channel in secondary markets is steady, but lead-to-order conversion fell to 24% against a ~48% seasonal baseline and the order-start rate to 30% against ~62%. Thirty days later the activations that cohort should have produced are 45% below plan. Nothing broke: 78% of the move sits with the dealer channel itself, on the affiliate campaign the dealers work, in one region — the signature of a better offer somewhere else, not an outage.
At a glance
What moved
What's happening · the funnel in secondary markets, September against its own baseline
End-to-end conversion this month: 55% below its seasonal baseline
Both stages are read as a share of leads, against the same month's own seasonal expectation. The leads are unchanged; everything after the handoff is roughly half of what that volume of leads normally produces.
Why · one channel, one campaign, one plan tier — not a market-wide slowdown
Contribution analysis of the lead-to-order conversion, one value per dimension. A platform fault would spread across channels and plans; a demand slowdown would show in the lead count. Concentrating on the dealer channel, on the entry plan, in the region with the most dealers, is what a competing offer looks like.
What it costs while it lasts
No cost figure is quoted because none is measured here — but the direction is arithmetic rather than an estimate. The fee is paid when the lead is handed over, so a channel converting at half its rate is buying activations at close to twice the price without a single contract changing.
So what
This is structural, and the month it is caught in is the month it can still be answered. Dealers follow the incentive maths; if a competing offer pays them better for the same customer, the leads keep arriving and the orders go elsewhere. Reading it at the quarterly channel review means paying three months of handoff fees for half the activations, and finding out from the activation line rather than from the funnel.
The points that matter
Steady leads are the tell, not the comfort
If demand had fallen the lead count would have fallen with it. Steady leads and halved conversion means the guest is arriving and choosing something else.
steadylead volumeThe break is before the order, not inside it
The order-start rate halves first. Guests are not abandoning a form — they are not opening one, which points at what they were offered rather than at how the order works.
30%vs 62%The activation line will confirm it a month late
Activations from this cohort are already 45% below plan. That number lands next month; the funnel said it this month.
−45%activationsRecommendation
Send channel managers into the affected secondary markets this month to identify the competing offer, run a tactical dealer incentive on Postpaid Standard there for a stabilisation window, and put a plan variant for those markets on the product agenda — the incentive buys time, it does not fix the maths.
Questions it already answers
Is this a system problem?
No. A fault in ordering or provisioning would show across every channel that uses it; 78% of the move is the dealer channel alone, on one campaign label and one plan.
Did demand fall in these markets?
No — lead volume is steady. The dealers are still generating and handing over the same number of prospects; roughly half as many of them now open an order.
Is it the dealers' fault?
It is the incentive maths, which is not the same thing. Dealers are paid at handoff and recommend what pays best; the answer is a competitive read and a tactical incentive, not a channel-performance conversation.