The high-value tier is visiting eleven per cent less and spending exactly the same
Visit frequency in the high-value tier has fallen to over the last four weeks, against the same weeks of a normal year. The mid tier sits at and the entry tier at , both inside their own ranges. It is not a spend cut: average basket is . Repeat purchase has followed the frequency down to , and the churn signal has fired on this tier for the first time this year. Almost all of it is one channel — in-store visits have fallen to while online delivery holds at . These members are still shopping, just less often.
So what? A member who spends the same but comes less often is not unhappy with the price. They are drifting, and drift stays quiet until the day it is a lapse. The habit has gone rather than the relationship, and a habit is far cheaper to restore than a customer is to win back.
3.41 vs 3.84 visits
eleven per cent fewer visits
$84.20 vs $83.85
they spend exactly the same
2.42 vs 2.84 visits
almost the whole of the fall
0.99 vs 1.00 visits
one channel, not the other
65.4 vs 71.2%
the same behaviour, read again
2.18 vs 2.22 visits
one tier, not the programme
Visit Frequency by loyalty tier, against each tier's own seasonal level
One tier has moved.
The line on each bar is that row’s own expected level. The scale runs from 0 to 4.5.
The high-value tier has fallen to while the mid tier sits at and the entry tier at . One tier has moved and the rest of the programme has not.
Visit Frequency by week · the high-value tier
Four weeks, against the same weeks of a normal year.
Visit frequency fell to and repeat purchase followed to , while average basket held at . Coming less often and spending the same is disengagement. Coming as often and spending less would have been something else entirely.
The two readings that say what this is
Frequency moved. Basket did not.
Visit Frequency
Average Basket
In-store visits fell to while online delivery held at . The churn signal has fired on this tier for the first time this year. It is one habit, in one channel, in one tier — and these members are still shopping, just less often.
3.41 vs 3.84 visits
and still falling
65.4 vs 71.2%
the second reading agreeing
$84.20 vs $83.85
what each missed visit was worth
Fewer visits, identical baskets
Visit frequency fell to while average basket held at .
Why it matters: A spend cut is a price conversation. A frequency drop with the basket intact is a habit conversation, and the two need different answers.
One tier, one channel
In-store visits fell to while online delivery held at , and the mid tier sits at .
Why it matters: It narrows a loyalty-wide worry to one habit in one place, which is small enough to do something about.
They have not gone yet
Repeat purchase has fallen to and the churn signal has fired on this tier for the first time this year, but these members are still shopping, just less often.
Why it matters: The whole value of a frequency signal is that it fires while the relationship is still there to work with.
Which stores did the tier stop visiting?
Turns a channel into a list of locations.
What daypart did they used to come in?
Says whether something about the shop changed at that hour.
How many of the tier have missed every week of the four?
Separates a slower habit from a lapse already under way.
Did anything change in those stores four weeks ago?
The one question the loyalty data cannot answer on its own.
Is the mid tier's frequency starting to follow?
Checks whether this stays one tier.