Value Packs / Retail / Retention & Loyalty Early-Warning / Wisdom
Which member groups are visiting less than they usually do right now, and how many members are in each?
NOne tier is not behaving like itself
IN A NUTSHELL
One group stands out. High-value members came in 11.2% less often over the last four weeks than they usually do — 3.41 visits each against a usual 3.84 — and there are 412,000 of them. Mid-tier is 1.8% below on 2.10M members and Premium 0.6% below on 96K; Entry and Lapsed-risk are both slightly above. On absolute frequency the high-value tier is still the most engaged group in the book — it is the only one not behaving like itself.
Visit Frequency against each tier’s own baseline, latest four weeks
Each tier is read against what is usual for that tier — a premium member visits more often than an entry member by definition, so the two raw rates were never comparable.
High-value members visited 3.41 times in four weeks against a usual 3.84. That is 0.43 fewer trips each, and across 412,000 members it comes to 177,000 trips. Mid-tier is 1.8% below its own usual, and no other tier is more than 1% away.
Ask a follow-up
How has Visit Frequency in the high-value tier moved week by week against its baseline?
NEleven normal weeks, then a slide
IN A NUTSHELL
The tier stayed inside the range we expect of it for eleven weeks, swinging up to 2.8 points either side of its usual level. It turned at week 12 and has moved further every week since: 96.2, 93.7, 91.2 and 88.8 against a usual of 100. It is a slide rather than one bad week — each week further out than the one before. Active members are flat across the same window at 409–414K, so this is the same population visiting less, not a smaller population visiting the same.
Visits each week against what is usual for this tier
Eleven weeks inside the range and then four below it — week 12 is where the series stops behaving like the eleven weeks before it.
Weeks 1 to 11 swing up to 2.8 points either side of usual and every one stays inside the expected range. The last three weekly falls are 2.5, 2.5 and 2.4, the same fall three weeks running.
Wisdom noticed
Ask a follow-up
Is the tier spending less when they come, or coming less often — and do the two move together?
NComing less, spending the same
IN A NUTSHELL
They do not move together. Visit Frequency is 11.2% below baseline while Average Basket is 0.4% above it — $84.20 against an expected $83.85. The members who come are spending what they always spent. Split by channel the fall is very uneven: in-store visits are 14.8% below baseline, click and collect 6.2% below, and digital delivery 0.9% above — the same members, the same weeks. Basket holds in all three, none further than 0.8% from expected.
Visits and spend against what is usual, by channel
| Channel | Visits against usual | Basket against usual | Share of visits |
|---|---|---|---|
| In store | −14.8% | +0.3% | 73% |
| Click and collect | −6.2% | +0.8% | 9% |
| Online delivery | +0.9% | +0.1% | 18% |
Every spend figure is within a point of usual and two of the three visit figures are not — a fall in one channel with spend holding is a specific pattern, and it is the one to watch for.
In-store carries 73% of the tier’s normal visits and 96% of the missing ones. Basket moves by at most 0.8% in any channel, so the members who do come are spending what they always spent.
Ask a follow-up
Put the retention report together.
NThe report lists the member groups coming in less often than they usually do, with what they spend when they do come and which way they are shopping.
members_visiting_less_w15.xlsx
One row per member group, grouped by who acts on it — stores, marketing, or watch only. High-value tier, read to week 15.
29 KB · 9 rows · 3 new, 5 persisting, 1 cleared
Ask a follow-up