Which states are furthest off target

IN A NUTSHELL

Three states are outside the target each is held to, and they are not the same size of problem. New York is at 88.2% against its 96.0% target — a 7.8-point gap — with 2.41M units of trailing demand behind it. Georgia is next at 93.8% against 96.4%, a 2.6-point gap on 1.86M units, and Ohio at 94.6% against 96.2% on 1.32M. On the size of the gap New York is three times Georgia. On the demand behind it, only about a third bigger.

In-Stock % against each state’s own target, by state

Each state has one category further below its target than the rest of it: grocery and beverages in New York at 86.4%, chilled and dairy in Georgia at 91.2%, and household and cleaning in Ohio at 92.4%. New York’s is the worst of the three and sits in its largest state by demand.

Five weeks outside the band, and still widening

IN A NUTSHELL

New York grocery and beverages sat between 95.5% and 96.9% for six weeks, inside the range we expect. From week 37 it has been below that range every week — 94.9%, and lower every week since to 86.4% at week 41, against a 96.0% target. The weekly steps have grown: 1.2 points at the first week below, 2.6 last week. From that first week below to now it has given up 8.5 points, across five weeks in a row outside the range.

In-Stock % against target · New York grocery and beverages

Before week 37 it moved by up to 1.4 points a week and never left the range. Since then it has fallen 1.2, 1.5, 2.2, 2.2 and 2.6 points — further down each week, and never back inside.

The stock exists — most of it is not on the shelf

IN A NUTSHELL

Mostly stock that exists and has not reached the shelf. Across these categories the warehouse holds 4.2 weeks of supply while the shelf holds 0.6 — a 3.6-week gap — and 31 of the 38 stores below target show that same shape. Those 31 sit at a median 4.1 days since the last replenishment, against 1.8 days for the stores in these categories still on target. The other 7 are short at both ends, with under 1.0 week at the warehouse on the same items.

Weeks of cover, shelf against warehouse · by store group

For the 31, the stock is already bought and already in the region — it is 4.1 days since anything moved to the shelf. For the 7, there is under a week of cover at the warehouse too, so there is nothing upstream to send.

The report lists every store that is short of stock, what it is short of, and whether that stock already exists at its warehouse or was never bought. One row per store, so each one can be picked up by whoever acts on it.