Program Loss-Ratio Guardian · Wisdom notebook
Ask the follow-up.
Agentic conversational BI · one continuous thread triaging the book on the combined-ratio ladder.
Municipal Law Enforcement is already routed — what else across the book is over break-even today?
RKScored all programs on combined ratio against their seasonal bands overnight; set aside the one already routed and surfaced the others sitting over the 100% line.
Nothing new on Municipal Law Enforcement — it's routed at 110% (slice at 141%). Two others sit over break-even and are worth a look:
Municipal Law Enforcement is already routed; Habitational and Commercial Trucking are the other two over break-even — both known, neither aimed at the cancel line.
Habitational at 109% — is that a real drift I need to act on, or just the winter?
RKCompared Habitational's combined ratio to its own seasonal expected range; the program peaks every winter on water / freeze / wind severity.
Mostly the season — Habitational peaks every winter on water, freeze and wind severity, and 109% sits at the top of its expected range, not outside it:
Habitational · combined ratio vs its seasonal expected range
It's a severity story — dollars-per-claim on NY/NJ/CT/FL property, not frequency. Winter peaks hit 116–117%; a deductible / water-mitigation endorsement review keeps it off the 120 line, but this isn't a surprise drift.
And Commercial Trucking at 105% — same kind of severity problem?
RKPulled Commercial Trucking's combined-ratio trend against its baseline; commercial auto structurally runs above break-even.
Different — this one just runs hot. Commercial auto has sat around a 104% combined for years; Trucking is on its baseline, not drifting off it:
Commercial Trucking · combined ratio holding on its hot baseline
Commercial auto structurally runs above 100 — priced for it, ceded for it. It's a hot line, not a drifting one; no action beyond keeping the rate on the auto-liability trend.