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Program Loss-Ratio Guardian · Wisdom notebook

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Agentic conversational BI · one continuous thread triaging the book on the combined-ratio ladder.

Municipal Law Enforcement is already routed — what else across the book is over break-even today?

RK

Scored all programs on combined ratio against their seasonal bands overnight; set aside the one already routed and surfaced the others sitting over the 100% line.

Nothing new on Municipal Law Enforcement — it's routed at 110% (slice at 141%). Two others sit over break-even and are worth a look:

Municipal Law Enforcementrouted Friday, no change110%
Habitationalwinter severity109%
Commercial Truckingruns hot by nature105%

Municipal Law Enforcement is already routed; Habitational and Commercial Trucking are the other two over break-even — both known, neither aimed at the cancel line.

Habitational at 109% — is that a real drift I need to act on, or just the winter?

RK

Compared Habitational's combined ratio to its own seasonal expected range; the program peaks every winter on water / freeze / wind severity.

Mostly the season — Habitational peaks every winter on water, freeze and wind severity, and 109% sits at the top of its expected range, not outside it:

Habitational · combined ratio vs its seasonal expected range

Habitational combined ratio · this month vs seasonal norm109%
summer lowwinter peak (116–117%)

It's a severity story — dollars-per-claim on NY/NJ/CT/FL property, not frequency. Winter peaks hit 116–117%; a deductible / water-mitigation endorsement review keeps it off the 120 line, but this isn't a surprise drift.

And Commercial Trucking at 105% — same kind of severity problem?

RK

Pulled Commercial Trucking's combined-ratio trend against its baseline; commercial auto structurally runs above break-even.

Different — this one just runs hot. Commercial auto has sat around a 104% combined for years; Trucking is on its baseline, not drifting off it:

Commercial Trucking · combined ratio holding on its hot baseline

Commercial Trucking combined ratio (%)flat
92%98%104%110%116%on baseline — no driftAug-25Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Jul-26
Now105%
Baseline104%
Band100–108%

Commercial auto structurally runs above 100 — priced for it, ceded for it. It's a hot line, not a drifting one; no action beyond keeping the rate on the auto-liability trend.