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Which programs are running a worse combined ratio than planned this month, and how much premium is in each?

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Three programs above plan, one of them well above

IN A NUTSHELL

Three programs are running worse than planned. Municipal Law Enforcement is furthest — a 112.4% combined ratio against a planned 97.0%, 15.4 points worse — on $196M of premium. Propane & Fuel Dealers is 7.6 points worse on $212M and Commercial Trucking 3.8 points worse on $148M. Contractors GL and Public Entity Package are both better than planned. Municipal Law Enforcement is the only one of the five above 110%.

Combined ratio against plan, by program, this month

Combined ratio nowAbove planCombined ratio plannedMunicipal Law Enforcement+15.4$196M premiumPropane & Fuel Dealers+7.6$212MCommercial Trucking+3.8$148MContractors GL−1.4$174MPublic Entity Package−4.3$131M0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%

Each program is read against its own plan — Public Entity Package is planned at 95.5% and Commercial Trucking at 98.0%, so the same ratio means different things in the two books.

Municipal Law Enforcement’s 15.4 points on $196M of premium is $30.2M. The other two above plan are $21.7M between them on $360M of premium, so one program carries more than both.

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How has the combined ratio for Municipal Law Enforcement moved month by month against plan? How has Propane & Fuel Dealers moved month by month? Which programs are running better than planned?

How has the combined ratio for Municipal Law Enforcement moved month by month against plan?

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Ten months inside the range, then November

IN A NUTSHELL

The combined ratio sat inside its expected range every month from January to October, moving between 94.6% and 99.4%. November is the first month above it — 112.4% against a planned 97.0%. The step from October to November is 17.0 points, against a largest ordinary month-to-month move of 4.8. On $196M of premium that one month is $30.2M.

Combined ratio against the range expected of it · Municipal Law Enforcement

90%95%100%105%110%115%November — the first month aboveJanuaryMarchMayJulySeptemberNovemberlatest monthCombined ratioExpected range

The range is rebuilt each month — a ratio above the top of it is worse than this month’s own history expected of the program.

The ten months to October sit either side of what was expected by at most 2.6 points. November is 15.4 above — nearly six times the furthest any earlier month strayed, and the only one outside the range.

Wisdom noticed

“That’s the second question in a row on Municipal Law Enforcement. Shall I save it as your scope?”
Yes, save it as my scope No, ask me each time

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Which states inside that program are carrying it? How much premium was written in each of those months? How does Municipal Law Enforcement compare with Commercial Trucking?

Which states inside that program are carrying it?

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Done See how Wisdom analyzed this

Three states, and the rest of the program is fine

IN A NUTSHELL

Illinois, Missouri and Ohio are all above the combined ratio each was planned at, and the rest of the program is 12.0 points below its own. Illinois is furthest at 37.6 points above a 94.2% plan on $62M of premium, Missouri 21.0 points above a 98.6% plan on $41M, and Ohio 15.7 points above a 96.4% plan on $34M. Those three hold $137M of the $196M in the program.

Combined ratio against each state’s own plan · Municipal Law Enforcement

ILMOOHABOVE EACH STATE’S OWN PLANIllinois$62M premium · plan 94.2%+37.6 ppMissouri$41M · plan 98.6%+21.0 ppOhio$34M · plan 96.4%+15.7 ppThe other 45 statesat or below their own plan

Only the three states above their own plan are shaded — the plan is on each row, because Illinois was written to 94.2% and Missouri to 98.6%, and one number across the three would hide that.

Illinois on its own is $23.3M of the $30.2M the program is over — more than Missouri and Ohio together. It is also the largest single state book in the program at $62M.

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Put the monthly loss-ratio report together. What is the litigation rate in each of those states? Which states in the program are below plan?

Put the monthly loss-ratio report together.

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Done See how Wisdom analyzed this

The report lists every program and state running a worse combined ratio than it was planned to, with the premium written there, the losses and expenses behind the ratio, and how the two compare with plan. One row per program and state.

XLSX

combined_ratio_against_plan_november.xlsx

One row per program and state, sorted by points above plan. Five programs, with the eleven months behind each row.

49 KB · 84 rows · 5 programs · 11 months

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Ask a follow-up

Which states are more than ten points above plan? Can I see this grouped by broker rather than by state? How many policies sit behind each state? Which programs came back inside plan this month?