Program Loss-Ratio Guardian · Brief 01
Portfolio Combined-Ratio Command Centre
All programs on one ladder · scored monthly against the 92 / 100 / 120 bands
The one line you configure
Where does every program sit on the combined-ratio scale this month — and which one is quietly drifting toward the 120% carrier-cancel line?
In a nutshell
The book is healthy — portfolio combined ratio ~95%, most programs at or under break-even. The danger is specific: Municipal Law Enforcement is at 110%, and inside it a driver slice — Law Enforcement class in IL and CA, placed by Amwins / CRC Group on State National capacity — has reached a 141% combined ratio, tracking straight at the 120% line where the carrier cancels the program.
At a glance
By segment
What moved
What's happening · the driver slice escalated to 141% over the window
The slice cleared 120% and keeps climbing — the annual actuarial review would not surface this until months after the carrier conversation is already lost.
Why · severity and reserve strengthening — not frequency, not rate — carry the move
Claim counts are flat-to-down; the move is dollars-per-claim (litigated police liability) plus reserves catching up — a severity story, so a re-rate and reserve review beat any frequency play.
Where · the heat is two states, not the whole police book
Illinois and California carry the drift on State National capacity; the rest of the police book sits at or near break-even.
So what
The portfolio holds at ~95% and most programs sit at or under break-even. One program — Municipal Law Enforcement at 110% — carries a driver slice already at 141%, and left alone it drags the whole program past the 120% line where State National cancels the book and the profit commission goes to zero. That is the one to act on before renewal.
The points that matter
It is one slice, not the book
Portfolio combined holds at ~95% and most programs are at or under break-even — only Municipal Law Enforcement's IL/CA slice needs action now.
141%one sliceIt is severity, not frequency
Litigation on the slice runs ~55% vs a 40% base and reserves are strengthening — the fix is re-rating and reserve review, not chasing claim counts.
~55%litigatedThe clock is the treaty renewal
At the current slope the program crosses 120% before renewal — past the line, State National can cancel the whole book and the profit commission zeroes out.
120%cancel lineQuestions it already answers
Is Municipal Law Enforcement's drift frequency or severity — and are reserves involved?
Severity — litigated-claim dollars-per-claim on the IL/CA slice, with reserve strengthening on top; frequency is flat.
Which state × producer slice inside the program is driving the 110%?
Law Enforcement class in IL and CA, placed by Amwins and CRC Group on State National capacity — a ~1% slice of premium doing most of the damage.
If we emergency re-rate that slice before renewal, does the program hold under 120%?
Yes — a targeted re-rate plus reserve review on the IL/CA slice pulls the program back off the cancel line before the carrier review.