Value Packs / Banking / Liquidity & Maturity Early-Warning / Wisdom
Which states are replacing less of their maturing deposit money than we expect over the next thirty days, and how much is maturing in each?
NThree states are not replacing what they have maturing
IN A NUTSHELL
Three states are booking less new deposit money than they have maturing. Texas is furthest — $1.42B matures there in the next thirty days and only $1.16B of new money is coming in to replace it, leaving it $261M short. Arizona is $72M short on $640M maturing and Nevada $30M short on $385M. The other 45 states are booking at least as much as they have maturing.
New money booked against money maturing, by state, next thirty days
Only the three states booking less than they have maturing are shaded — the darker the shading, the bigger the gap between what is maturing and what is coming in to replace it.
Texas has $1.42B maturing against $1.03B across Arizona and Nevada together, so it is both the largest maturity wall and the widest shortfall. Every other state is booking at least as much as it has maturing.
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How has the share of maturing money that Texas replaces moved week by week against what we expect?
NBelow expectation for four weeks, and lower each week
IN A NUTSHELL
Texas replaced between 95.8% and 103.6% of what matured every week through week 11, inside what we expect of it. It fell below the range at week 12 and has been lower every week since — 94.2%, 90.1%, 85.8% and 81.6%. The slide from week 11 to now is 19.1 points, and each of the last three weeks gave up between 4.1 and 4.3 points.
New money against money maturing, by week · Texas
A reading of 100% means every dollar that matured was replaced by a new one — anything under it is money that came due and did not come back.
Weeks 1 to 11 sit either side of expectation by no more than 4.3 points and never in the same direction twice running. From week 12 the shortfall runs 5.7, 9.5, 14.2 and 18.1 points, widening in each of the four.
Wisdom noticed
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Is it the long-held deposits not being replaced, or the newer ones?
NIt is the twelve-month money
IN A NUTSHELL
Money maturing out of twelve-month deposits is being replaced at 72.9% against a usual 99.6% — 26.7 points down, on $690M. Six-month money is 14.1 points down on $420M, and three-month or shorter 5.8 points down on $310M. The longer the deposit that is maturing, the less of it is coming back. Twelve-month money is 49% of what matures and 70% of the shortfall, which is $184M of the $261M Texas is short.
Replacement rate by the tenor the money is maturing from · Texas
Each tenor is read against what it usually replaces — all three normally bring in at least as much as they have maturing, and the twelve-month book is the one that has moved.
All three tenors normally replace what they have maturing almost exactly. The three-month book still nearly does. The twelve-month book is $690M of the $1.42B maturing and has moved furthest, so it decides the total.
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Put the maturity report together.
NThe report lists everything maturing in the next thirty days by state, branch and tenor, with how much of each has been replaced so far and how much has not. One row per maturity date, so the days with the most money coming due are visible.
maturities_next_thirty_days.xlsx
One row per maturity date and tenor, sorted by the money not yet replaced. Texas, Arizona and Nevada, with the fifteen weeks behind each.
71 KB · 186 rows · 3 states · 30 days ahead
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