Liquidity & Maturity Early-Warning · Brief 02
Maturity-Concentration Command Centre
Every region on one ladder · scored weekly against the 8 / 12 / 16 concentration bands
The one line you configure
Where does each region sit on the maturity-concentration scale this week, and is any drifting toward a 30-day liquidity cliff?
In a nutshell
The book is comfortable — most regions hold under the 12% watch line. The danger is specific: the Southeast's 30-day maturity concentration has climbed to 17.9% from an ~8.5% baseline (2.11×), a wall of the term book coming due — and the flat premature-break rate confirms it is scheduled maturities, not distress.
At a glance
By segment
What moved
What · the Southeast wall sits in the 0–30-day bucket
The near bucket is the risk — $2.10B rolls off inside 30 days while the rest of the ladder is spread; a bunched front rung is the cliff.
Where · the cliff is one region, not the book
The Southeast carries the wall; the rest of the network sits at or near the comfortable line.
When · Southeast concentration crossed the cliff line this week
The climb built over five weeks and broke the band this week — a building cliff, not a one-week spike.
What the leading signal adds
Maturity-schedule views rose first — customers are already checking unlock dates — so the cliff is visible a full cycle before the maturities settle, while there is still time to pre-fund.
So what
Most of the book is comfortable and well-laddered. One region — the Southeast at 17.9% — carries a 30-day wall that, left unfunded, forces refinancing into whatever rate the market offers that week and concentrates rollover risk. The flat break rate says it is scheduled, so there is still time to pre-fund and pre-empt with renewal offers before the maturities settle.
The points that matter
It is one region, not the book
Most regions hold under the 12% watch line; only the Southeast's 30-day wall needs action now.
17.9%one regionScheduled, not distress
Break rate stayed flat while concentration doubled — contractual maturities coming due, not early breaks.
flatbreak rateThe clock is the maturity date
Maturity-schedule views led — customers know the dates too; pre-emptive renewal offers beat a scramble to pre-fund at market.
16%cliff lineQuestions it already answers
Is the Southeast wall scheduled maturities or early breaks?
Scheduled — break rate held flat while 30-day concentration climbed to 17.9%; contractual roll-off, not distress.
Which tenure carries the wall?
Long and Medium tenure lead — the longer-dated Southeast book rolls to maturity together; short-tenure is a small slice.
If we launch a renewal offer before the maturities settle, does the cliff ease?
Yes — a targeted renewal offer on the long-tenure book pulls projected concentration back under the watch line at a defined rate cost.