Deposit-Flight & Fraud Guardian · Brief 02
Deposit flight · Affluent-Uninsured on mobile
Two peer banks repriced on Tuesday. The money left the same day, and it went to them.
The one line you configure
Is any cohort losing deposits faster than its own normal — and if so, where is the money going and what are the peers paying?
In a nutshell
Bank A and Bank B raised their rates on Tuesday, to 4.55% and 4.40%. We held at 1.15%, so the gap to the best of them went from 300 to 340 bps. The same day, Affluent-Uninsured customers on MobileApp moved $71.6M against a normal day of $4.8M, then $88.3M on Wednesday — and $106.0M of that went to those two banks. No other cohort moved. It sits in the Standard pricing tier (78% of the outflow), in Tech and Crypto, and in Southwest and Southeast where our rate ranks worst. Complaint rate, first-payee ratio and account closures did not move — not theft, not service, not customers leaving. $1.74B remains and the gap is still open.
At a glance
Daily outflow as a share of each cohort's own balance
Shown as a share of each cohort's own balance, because in dollars the larger cohorts would look comparable. Monday they are all the same. Two peer banks reprice on Tuesday and one cohort goes to 3.60% and then 4.44%, while the other two stay where they were all week.
What else moved — and what did not
Inflow held up — this is not a collapse in new money, it is old money leaving faster than it can be replaced, and the net is −$216.6M against a normal +$4.9M. Two of these show intent rather than outcome: 16.6% of the outflow paid a penalty to break a locked deposit early, and six months of interest at 1.15% only pays back after two months. The bottom two rows are the discriminators, and they did not move at all.
Where it went — and which of them had just repriced
On Tuesday and Wednesday alone, $106.0M of $159.9M — two thirds — went to Bank A and Bank B, the two that had just repriced. Across the week 94.2% went somewhere paying more than our 1.15%, and only $14.4M did not.
By pricing tier — the money came out of the one we never touched
Almost four fifths came out of the tier we have never repriced, while the negotiated tier ran 3.5%. That makes this a tier decision, not a book decision. Outflow rate by row: Standard — never repriced 18.0% · Senior 7.6% · Bulk / negotiated 3.5%.
By sector — two of them are most of it
Tech and Crypto are 43% of this cohort's balance but 68% of what left. That is how a pricing problem turns into a concentration problem. Outflow rate by row: Crypto & digital assets 22.8% · Tech & venture-backed 18.5% · Real estate 9.3% · Everything else 5.3%.
By region — the loss tracks our rate rank, with no exceptions
| Region | Our rate rank | Share of balance | Share of the $248M | Outflow rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest | 47 of 50 | 23.5% | 40.8% | 21.6% |
| Southeast | 41 of 50 | 20.2% | 26.1% | 16.1% |
| West | 33 of 50 | 21.7% | 19.5% | 11.2% |
| Midwest | 24 of 50 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 6.8% |
| Northeast | 12 of 50 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
Worse rank, bigger loss, every step of the way. Southwest and Southeast hold 43.7% of the cohort and produce 66.9% of what left.
So what
The value here is the week. A rate move on Tuesday had cost us $216.6M of net deposits by Friday, and it is on a desk while the gap is still open rather than in next month’s pack. And the exposure is not the book — it is $1.74B sitting in one pricing tier, two sectors and two regions, which is small enough to price deliberately. Left alone it costs $61.0M a year to replace at wholesale.
The points that matter
A date, not a drift
Two peer banks repriced on Tuesday. Our gap to the best of them went from 300 to 340 bps, and $71.6M left the same day against a normal day of $4.8M.
$71.6MTuesdayIt went to them
$106.0M of the $159.9M that moved on Tuesday and Wednesday went to the two peers that had just repriced.
66.3%to the twoOne cohort answered
Affluent-Uninsured on mobile moved $159.9M across Tuesday and Wednesday. The other four cohorts saw the same rates and stayed close to a normal week.
1 of 5cohorts respondedThe controls stayed flat
First-time payees 2.1%, complaints 0.3%, closures 0.4% — unchanged across all five cohorts. Theft, service and attrition are ruled out by measures that did not move.
3 flatdiscriminatorsRecommendation
Aim at the Standard tier — 78% of what left, and the only tier we have never repriced. Call the maturing accounts first: those an RM spoke to renewed 42.6% against 29.8%, and 141 accounts holding $38.4M went uncalled. Break-even on this cohort is 3.01% — above that you are buying liquidity, not margin.
Questions it already answers
How much of the $1.74B still exposed sits in the Standard tier?
Which regions did Bank A and Bank B take the most from?