Value Packs / Banking / Deposit-Flight & Fraud Guardian / Wisdom
Which branches are breaking fixed deposits earlier than they should be today, and how much is that worth?
NOne branch is nearly ten times a usual Wednesday
IN A NUTSHELL
Three branches broke more deposits early today than a usual Wednesday brings. Branch 07 is far ahead — $306.8K against the $31.4K a Wednesday usually brings, nearly ten times it, across 31 deposits. Branch 03 is at $47.2K and Branch 09 at $38.6K, both above their own usual on ordinary amounts. The other seven branches average $18.9K and sit inside theirs.
Deposits broken before maturity today, against a usual Wednesday, by branch
Each branch is read against what a usual Wednesday brings it — Branch 03 and Branch 09 would not show on the amounts alone; they surface because four measures are scored together, not one.
Branch 03 and Branch 09 are $17.1K and $9.8K above their own usual, which is an ordinary fortnight for this measure. Branch 07 is $275.4K above, on 31 deposits against the 4 a usual Wednesday brings it.
Ask a follow-up
How have early breaks at Branch 07 moved day by day against what we expect?
NIt started yesterday and today is higher again
IN A NUTSHELL
Branch 07 broke between $15.9K and $44.1K of deposits early every day from 1 May to 19 May, inside what we expect of it. Yesterday it broke $184.2K and today it is $306.8K — two days above the range, and today is higher than yesterday. The step overnight was $147.3K, against a largest ordinary overnight move of $27.9K.
Deposits broken before maturity by day, against the range expected · Branch 07
The range repeats on a seven-day cycle — it comes from the same weekday in the three weeks before, so a quiet Sunday is not mistaken for something going wrong.
The two days together are $491.0K of deposits broken early, where the same two days usually bring $64.4K — seven and a half times as much. Payees this branch has never paid before took $319.7K of those two days, against $12.4K on an ordinary one.
Wisdom noticed
Ask a follow-up
How much of that went to payees we have never paid before, and how fast did it move?
NTwo thirds to payees we have never paid, most of it on instant rails
IN A NUTSHELL
$201.3K of the $306.8K — 66% — went to payees this branch has never paid before, and $149.2K of that moved on rails that settle in seconds. A further $52.1K went to first-time payees by wire, which settles the same day but leaves a narrow window to recall. The remaining $105.5K went to beneficiaries the branch has paid before, on any rail. Instant rails carry no recall window at all, by design.
The $306.8K broken early today, by who received it and how fast it moved
| Payee status and payment rail | Value | Share of the $306.8K |
|---|---|---|
| First-time payee · instant rails | $149.2K | 48.6% |
| First-time payee · wire | $52.1K | 17.0% |
| Established payee · any rail | $105.5K | 34.4% |
Payee status is whether this branch has paid that beneficiary before — the rail is how the money left, and the two together are what decides whether any of it can still be stopped.
$149.2K is on rails with no recall window. The $52.1K on wire is the part where speed still buys something. That split is why this sits on a desk today rather than in a monthly pack.
Ask a follow-up
Put the deposit-flight report together.
NThe report lists every fixed deposit broken before its maturity date over the last two days, with the branch, how long it had been held, how much left, who received it and which rail it moved on. One row per deposit, so each can be looked at on its own.
early_breaks_21_may.xlsx
One row per deposit broken early, sorted by value. Branch, holding period, payee status and rail, with the nineteen days before this started.
62 KB · 76 rows · 5 branches · 21 days
Ask a follow-up