Value Packs / Banking / Deposit-Cost & Beta Sentinel / Wisdom

Deposit-Cost & Beta Sentinel · Wisdom notebook

Ask the follow-up.

Agentic conversational BI · from this week's interest-bill jump down to the day it repriced

Our interest bill jumped — did the book grow, or are we just paying up?

RK

Put the week's interest expense next to the change in the deposit book over the same weeks.

The book barely moved — we're paying more for balances we already had. That's deposit beta, not growth:

150112.57537.50−7w−6w−5w−4w−3w−2w−1wthis wk
Interest Paid (indexed)
FD Book Balance (indexed)

Interest paid is up about a third over the quarter while the book is flat to down — the extra spend didn't buy growth.

Which cohort repriced hardest for the least growth?

RK

Ranked each cohort by the basis points of rate added against how much its book actually grew.

Affluent-uninsured is the clean beta trap — the biggest repricing with no growth; small-business paid the least and still grew:

Affluent-uninsured · +186 bpsbook 0.96×
Corporate non-op · +110 bpsbook 1.01×
Corporate operating · +60 bpsbook 1.02×
Small-business · +25 bpsbook 1.05×

The longer the bar, the more rate added for a book that didn't grow — Affluent-uninsured leads; small-business is the sticky exception.

The day the affluent rate stepped up — did the book move at all?

RK

Pulled the day the Affluent-uninsured rate re-priced and tracked its book through it.

The rate stepped, the book didn't — so a blanket hike won't hold this money. Defend the at-risk slice narrowly and keep the rest on relationship:

Affluent WA FD Rate (%) · actual vs expected bandrate up, book flat
4%4.75%5.5%6.25%7%stepped to 6.35%today
WA rate6.35%
Bookflat

The rate stepped up over the days while the book stayed flat — a blanket hike won't retain it. Target 25 bps on the at-risk money-market tier and hold the sticky book on relationship.