Value Packs / Banking / Deposit-Cost & Beta Sentinel / Brief 01

Deposit-Cost & Beta Sentinel · Brief 01

Cost-of-Funds Command Centre

Every cohort's FD rate on one ladder · scored daily vs the ~4.5% target

DataGenie Brief · autonomous
All cohorts · FD + CASA + rate sheets · 0 rows moved

The one line you configure

Where does every cohort's cost of funds sit against the target today, and which one is quietly paying up for a book that isn't growing?

In a nutshell

The book's blended rate is holding near ~4.5%, but one cohort is paying up: the Affluent-uninsured cohort has repriced its WA FD Rate from 4.49% to 6.35% (1.41×) with interest paid up ~36%, yet its FD book stayed flat (0.96×). That's the deposit-beta trap — more paid for balances that didn't grow, and Net CASA Flow still negative. Margin softens most in the Northeast, where NIM is thinnest at 1.79%.

At a glance

Affluent · WA FD Rate6.35%vs 4.49% bookpaying up
FD Interest Paid+36%1.36× vs basecost of funds up
FD Book Balanceflat0.96×discriminator · no growth
Book NIM1.99%−2.8%margin softening

Cost-of-funds ladder — WA FD Rate by cohort

HealthyDriftingDangerPaying up
Small_Business4.25
Corporate_Operating4.85
Corporate_NonOp5.55
Affluent_Uninsureddrifting6.35

What moved

Affluent_Uninsured↗ WA rate 4.49→6.35% while the book stays flat — the deposit-beta trap6.35%
Corporate_NonOp · Bulknegotiated bulk rates running hot, but balances holding5.55%
Small_Businessthe sticky book — paying least, still growing4.25%

Deposit beta by product — rate paid climbs where balance is leaving

500 bps375 bps250 bps125 bps0 bpsConsumer checkingPremium checkingOnline savingsHNW money-marketBrokered CDs
Rate paid (bps)
Balance ($B)

The rate-sensitive books (online savings, HNW money-market) are where balance thins as rate paid climbs — classic deposit beta. Consumer checking is sticky at almost no rate.

Why NIM slipped from ~2.15% to 1.82% on the cohort

0%0.54%1.08%1.61%2.15%2.15%PriorNIM-0.2FDraterepricing-0.09CASAsavings-ratehike-0.05Mixinterest-bearing+0.01Asset-yieldoffset1.82%Now

Almost the entire compression is deposit-side: FD repricing plus the savings-rate hike, with a small mix shift into interest-bearing balances. Asset yields barely move it.

Where it bites hardest — Northeast NIM below its expected range

Northeast NIM (%)1.79%
compressionhealthy

The Northeast pairs the highest FD rate paid (~4.71%) with the lowest NIM (1.79%) — the clearest regional read on where paying-up is compressing margin.

So what

The blended book rate looks controlled, but the Affluent-uninsured cohort is paying up for balances it already had — WA FD Rate at 6.35% with interest paid +36% and the book flat. Left alone, that repricing earns straight into margin: NIM is already at 1.99% and thinnest (1.79%) in the Northeast. This is the cohort to act on before the next rate sheet, and to defend by relationship rather than blanket rate.

The points that matter

It's one cohort paying up, not the book

The blended book holds near 4.5%; only Affluent-uninsured is the outlier at 6.35% — targeted, not franchise-wide.

6.35%vs 4.49% book

Paid more, didn't grow

Interest paid rose ~36% while the FD book stayed flat (0.96×) — the tell that rules out growth.

flatbook · 0.96×

The clock is NII

Book NIM is already 1.99%, thinnest (1.79%) in the Northeast; every blanket bp on a book that isn't leaving earns straight into that.

1.99%book NIM

Questions it already answers

Is the interest bill up because we grew the book, or because we repriced it?

Repriced — WA FD Rate rose 4.49% → 6.35% with the book flat (0.96×). Deposit beta, not growth.

Which cohort × region is compressing margin the most?

Affluent-uninsured, and the Northeast — highest FD rate paid (~4.71%) with the lowest NIM (1.79%).

If we hold rate only on the tier actually leaving, does NIM recover?

Yes — a targeted defence on the at-risk Affluent money-market tier holds the flight-prone balances without the blanket NII giveaway.