Complaints on real-estate operating cash rose sixteen times over, and the renewal rate broke in the same week
The complaint rate on real-estate operating cash reached this week. Net CASA flow on the same book turned negative, having been positive every week before it. The FD renewal rate on it fell to , where the rest of the book renewed at .
So what? Customers who leave over price announce it by shopping around first. These are leaving over something that happened to them, and they say nothing until the balance moves. That is why the complaints matter: they are the only warning, and they arrive while the money is still in the building.
11.5 vs 0.7%
and it moved first
44.6 vs 72% book
27 points under the book
turned this week
the second book to move
unmoved all week
rules out yield
no hotspot
systemic, not a desk
72 vs 72%
one sector only, not the franchise
Complaint Rate and FD Renewal Rate by week · real-estate operating cash
The complaints moved first. The money followed a week or two later.
The complaint rate reached a week or two before net CASA flow turned negative, having been positive every week before it, and before the renewal rate fell to . Reading the three books in that order is what turns a balance problem into something carrying a fortnight of warning.
Complaint Rate by channel · real-estate operating cash
Every channel moved together. There is no single desk to point at.
| Branch | Phone | App | Relationship manager | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This week | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 11.6% |
| What is expected of it | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Every other sector | at level | at level | at level | at level |
The complaint rate rose in every channel at once, with no hotspot anywhere. Branch, phone, app and relationship manager all moved together, while every other sector stayed at its own level. That rules out a representative and a location, and points at something the whole sector is experiencing in common.
The sequence is the warning. The unmoved reading is the answer.
| Book | What is expected of it | This week | Moved | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complaint Rate | 0.7% | 11.5% | first | a fortnight of warning |
| Net CASA Flow | positive | negative | second | the balances start to go |
| FD Renewal Rate | 72% | 44.6% | third | maturing money not renewing |
| Rate-shopping outflow | its own normal | unmoved | never | not price — service |
Three books broke their own levels in sequence and one did not move: rate-shopping outflow in the sector did not move at all. Customers leaving for a better rate shop before they go, so that one unmoved reading is what rules out price. The renewal rate now sits at against a book holding at , on balances that have not run down yet.
44.6 vs 72% book
on money maturing now
11.5 vs 0.7%
the measure that gave the warning
turned this week
the balances are moving
The complaints gave the warning, not the balance
The complaint rate on the sector reached , and it moved a week or two before anything in the funding did.
Why it matters: It is the only measure here that gives warning rather than confirmation.
The unmoved signal names it service, not price
Rate-shopping outflow in the sector did not move at all, while the complaint rate, net CASA flow and the renewal rate all broke their own levels.
Why it matters: A price answer costs basis points across the sector. A service answer costs a conversation, and the unmoved reading says which one this is.
One sector, every channel, and the cause is elsewhere
The renewal rate fell to while the rest of the book held at , and the complaint rate rose in every channel at once, with no hotspot anywhere. What actually broke sits in the tickets, not here.
Why it matters: Naming the sector and the timing is what this data can do; a human reads the tickets from there.
Which relationships in the sector are out of band on complaints?
The retention desk's list, ordered by balance.
How much maturing balance sits behind them?
Sizes what is still savable this month.
What complaint categories are driving the 11.5%?
Points at the tickets that carry the cause.
Did New FD Booked fall in the same sector?
Whether the cross-sell half moved too.
Is any other sector's complaint rate turning?
Uses the leading measure as a leading measure.
Which sectors are renewing above their own expected level?
The control for the sector claim.