Value Packs / Banking / Cross-Sell & Retention Monitor / Wisdom
Which states are renewing deposits furthest below what we expect of them this week, and how much money is behind each one?
NWhere the renewals are falling short
IN A NUTSHELL
Three states are renewing less of their maturing money than their own baseline. Ohio is furthest — 77.6% renewed against its 84.0% baseline, a 6.4-point gap — on $312M maturing this week. Michigan is 2.7 points below its own on $188M, and Indiana 1.9 below its own on $141M. The other 45 states are at or above theirs. Ohio’s gap is $20.0M of deposits that did not stay.
Renewal Rate against each state’s own baseline, this week
Only the three states below their own baseline are shaded — the baseline is on each row, because Ohio renews at a different level from Indiana and one number across the three would hide that.
Ohio has $312M maturing against Michigan and Indiana’s $329M together, so one state carries nearly half the money at risk and the widest gap at the same time. Indiana renews best of the three at 85.4% and is still below its own 87.3%.
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How has the renewal rate in Ohio moved week by week against what we expect?
NBelow expectation for five weeks, and further below each week
IN A NUTSHELL
Ohio stayed inside its expected range through week 36, moving between 83.2% and 85.1%, then fell below the range at week 37 and has been lower every week since — 82.1, 80.8, 79.4, 78.2 and 77.6%. The fall from week 36 to now is 6.4 points, against a largest ordinary weekly move of 1.9 points in the six weeks before it.
Renewal Rate against the range expected of it · Ohio
The range is rebuilt each week from that week’s own history — the gap between the line and the bottom of the range is how far below expectation Ohio is running.
Weeks 31 to 36 sit either side of expectation, three of them above it. From week 37 the shortfall runs 1.8, 3.4, 4.4, 5.8 and 6.5 points against what was expected, widening every week.
Wisdom noticed
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Are the same customers renewing smaller amounts, or are fewer customers renewing at all?
NFewer customers, and the long-standing ones most of all
IN A NUTSHELL
Fewer customers are renewing, and the longer they have held the deposit the less likely they are to renew it. Deposits held five years or more renew at 71.0% against a usual 84.5% — 13.5 points down, on $100M. Two to five years is 4.5 points down on $120M, and under two years 1.2 points down on $92M. The money each renewing customer put back is $18,400 against a usual $18,600, so the size of a renewal has barely moved.
Renewal Rate by how long the deposit has been held · Ohio
Each group is read against what is usual for that group — the oldest deposits fall furthest, and they are the ones that normally renew most reliably.
The oldest group normally renews best of the three and is now the worst. Its 13.5-point fall on $100M is $13.5M of the $20.0M Ohio is short — two thirds of it from a third of the money.
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Put the weekly renewals report together.
NThe report lists every branch renewing less of its maturing deposits than expected, with how much matured there, how much was renewed and how long those deposits had been held. One row per branch, so each one can be picked up by the person who runs it.
renewals_below_expected_week_41.xlsx
One row per branch, sorted by the money that did not renew. Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, with the eleven weeks behind each.
58 KB · 96 rows · 3 states · 11 weeks
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