Value Packs / Telecom / Churn Prevention Intelligence / Wisdom
Which plans have the most subscribers at risk of leaving this week, and how many subscribers is that?
NOne plan has moved well past its own normal
IN A NUTSHELL
Three plans have more subscribers scored at risk than is usual for them. Postpaid Gold is furthest — 14.6% of the base against a usual 8.9%, 5.7 points up, across 1.24M subscribers. Postpaid Silver is 1.8 points up across 2.06M and 5G Ultra 0.9 points up across 480K. Prepaid Flex and Postpaid Platinum are both below their usual. Gold’s move is 71,000 more subscribers at risk than a usual week on that plan.
Subscribers scored high-risk against what is usual, by plan, this week
Each plan is read against its own usual level — Prepaid Flex normally sits at 18.8% and 5G Ultra at 5.9%, so the raw percentages are not comparable between plans.
Prepaid Flex has the highest at-risk share on the page at 18.4% and sits 0.4 points below its own usual. Gold is the only plan more than two points away from where it normally sits.
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How has the share of Postpaid Gold subscribers at risk moved week by week against what we expect?
NAbove expectation for four weeks and climbing
IN A NUTSHELL
Postpaid Gold stayed inside its expected range through week 11, moving between 8.3% and 9.6%, then went above the range at week 12 and has risen every week since — 10.6, 11.8, 13.2 and 14.6%. The rise from week 11 to now is 5.3 points, and each of the last three weeks has added between 1.2 and 1.4 points. The largest move in the eleven normal weeks was 1.3 points in either direction.
Subscribers scored high-risk against the range expected · Postpaid Gold
The range is rebuilt each week from that week’s own history — the series sat inside it for eleven weeks and has been above it for four.
Weeks 1 to 11 sit either side of expectation by no more than 0.9 points. From week 12 the excess runs 1.7, 3.0, 4.2 and 5.7 points, and it has grown in every one of them.
Wisdom noticed
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Which states inside that plan are carrying it?
NThree states, and the rest of the plan is below its usual
IN A NUTSHELL
Each state has its own usual at-risk level, and Texas, Arizona and New Mexico are all well above theirs, while every other state is below its own. Texas is furthest at 26.4% against a usual 9.6%, on 318K Gold subscribers. Arizona is at 21.8% against 8.4% on 141K, and New Mexico at 19.6% against 7.8% on 86K. Those three hold 44% of the Gold base and 73% of everyone at risk.
Subscribers scored high-risk against each state’s own usual · Postpaid Gold
Only the three states above their own usual are shaded — the usual is on each row, because a Texas Gold subscriber and a New Mexico one do not start from the same level.
Data-speed complaints from those three states ran 3,140 this week against 1,180 in a usual one. That is a count in the same three states — this data cannot say whether it is why anyone is leaving.
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Put the weekly at-risk report together.
NThe report lists every subscriber scored at risk of leaving this week, with the plan, the state, how long they have been with us and the complaints logged against the account. One row per subscriber, so a retention team can work straight off it.
subscribers_at_risk_week_15.xlsx
One row per at-risk subscriber, sorted by score. Five plans and three states, with the fifteen weeks of scoring behind each plan.
84 KB · 181,000 rows · 5 plans · 15 weeks
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