Value Packs / Insurance / Underwriting Funnel & Hit-Ratio Monitor / Wisdom
Which programs are winning less of what they quote than we expect, and how many submissions is that across?
NWhere we are winning less than usual
IN A NUTSHELL
Three programs are winning less of what they quote than usual. Public Entity Package is furthest — 18.4% of quotes bound against a usual 27.6%, 9.2 points down — across 1,840 submissions. Contractors GL is 3.7 points down across 2,410 and Commercial Trucking 2.2 points down across 760. Municipal Law Enforcement and Propane & Fuel Dealers are both winning more than usual. Public Entity Package is 105 policies fewer than a usual week.
Share of quotes won against what is usual, by program, this week
Each program is read against its own usual rate — Commercial Trucking normally wins 32.4% and Contractors GL 25.8%, so the same percentage means different things across the two.
Contractors GL carries 2,410 submissions at a third of the gap, so the volume does not follow the gap. Public Entity Package and Contractors GL together are 4,250 of the 6,170 submissions on this page.
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How has the share of quotes we win on Public Entity Package moved week by week against what we expect?
NBelow expectation for four weeks and falling each week
IN A NUTSHELL
The program stayed inside its expected range through week 11, moving between 26.2% and 29.1%, then fell below the range at week 12 and has been lower every week since — 24.8, 22.6, 20.4 and 18.4%. The fall from week 11 to now is 9.7 points, and each of the last three weeks has given up about 2.2 points on the one before. The largest move in the eleven normal weeks was 2.9 points.
Share of quotes won against the range expected of it · Public Entity Package
The range is rebuilt each week from that week’s own history — the series sat inside it for eleven weeks and has been under it for four.
Weeks 1 to 11 sit either side of expectation by no more than 1.5 points, six of them above it. From week 12 the shortfall runs 2.8, 5.1, 7.1 and 9.2 points and has not narrowed once.
Wisdom noticed
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Is the drop in what we quote, or in what we win once quoted?
NWe are quoting as much as ever and winning much less of it
IN A NUTSHELL
It is entirely at the last step. 1,840 submissions arrived against a usual 1,810, and 1,196 of them were quoted — 65.0%, against a usual 65.1%. Of those quotes 220 were bound against a usual 325, which is 18.4% against 27.6%. Submissions are up slightly and the share we choose to quote has not moved. The whole of the change is in what happens after the quote goes out.
Submissions, quotes and bound policies · Public Entity Package
| Step | A usual week | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Submissions received | 1,810 | 1,840 | +1.7% |
| Quoted | 1,178 · 65.1% of submissions | 1,196 · 65.0% of submissions | −0.1 pp |
| Bound | 325 · 27.6% of quotes | 220 · 18.4% of quotes | −9.2 pp |
Each step is a count and the share it represents of the step above it — the usual column is the same program averaged over the eleven weeks before this started.
The first two steps are within a point of where they always are. The third is 105 policies short of a usual week, which is 32% fewer bindings on essentially the same number of quotes.
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Put the weekly submissions report together.
NThe report follows every submission that arrived this week through to whether it was quoted and whether it was bound, with the program, the broker who sent it and the state. One row per submission, so the ones that were quoted and lost can be picked out.
submissions_week_15.xlsx
One row per submission, with its quote and binding outcome. Five programs, and the eleven weeks before this started for comparison.
66 KB · 6,170 rows · 5 programs · 15 weeks
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