Value Packs / Insurance / Claims Severity & Reserve Early-Warning / Wisdom
Which programs are seeing bigger claims than we reserved for this month, and how much premium sits behind each?
NWhere claims are costing more than we reserved
IN A NUTSHELL
Three programs are closing claims for more than they were reserved at. Propane & Fuel Dealers is furthest — an average closed claim costs $84.2K against a reserved $61.0K, 38% more — on $212M of premium. Commercial Trucking is $7.8K over on $148M and Municipal Law Enforcement $5.2K over on $196M. Contractors GL and Public Entity Package are both closing under. Propane is the largest premium book on this page and the widest gap at once.
What a closed claim costs against what we reserved, by program, this month
Each program is read against its own reserved figure — Contractors GL is reserved at $40.2K a claim and Propane at $61.0K, so the two gaps are not comparable in dollars on their own.
Propane is $23.2K a claim over reserve, which is roughly three times Commercial Trucking and four times Municipal Law Enforcement. Those two sit where this measure usually sits when nothing in particular is happening.
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How has the cost of a claim in Propane & Fuel Dealers moved month by month against what we reserved?
NTen ordinary months, then this one
IN A NUTSHELL
The average closed claim sat inside its expected range every month from January to October, moving between $57.2K and $63.8K. November is the first month above it — $84.2K against a reserved $61.0K. The step from October to November is $24.4K a claim, against a largest ordinary month-to-month move of $6.6K. On 148 claims closed, that one month is $3.43M above reserve.
Cost of a closed claim against the range expected of it · Propane & Fuel Dealers
The range is rebuilt each month from that month’s own history — a claim cost above the top of it is more than this month’s own history expected to be paid.
The ten months to October sit either side of what was expected by at most $3.3K a claim. November is $23.2K above — seven times the furthest any earlier month strayed, and the only one outside the range.
Wisdom noticed
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Is it more claims, or the same number of claims costing more?
NThe same number of claims, and the big ones are bigger
IN A NUTSHELL
It is not the count. 148 claims closed this month against a usual 151 — three fewer. The cost is in the largest claims: nine claims over $250K account for $2.11M of the $3.43M closed above reserve, 62% of it. The twenty-two between $100K and $250K add $0.78M. The 117 claims under $100K are $0.54M between them. Nine claims out of 148 carry nearly two thirds of the money.
The $3.43M closed above reserve, by the size of the claim
The four pieces sum to the whole amount closed above reserve — each is the claims in that size band, costed against what each was reserved at.
Nine claims are 6% of the month by count and 62% of the money over reserve. Fifty-six claims under $25K are 38% of the count and 5% of it.
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Put the monthly claims report together.
NThe report lists every claim closed this month for more than it was reserved at, with the program, the size band it falls into, what was reserved and what was paid. One row per claim, so the largest ones can be read on their own.
claims_above_reserve_november.xlsx
One row per claim closed above reserve, sorted by the difference. Five programs, with the eleven months of severity behind each.
53 KB · 148 rows · 5 programs · 11 months
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